But it is very likely that once the vote is passed the Center bubble deflatesHowever this is only a part of the projectAnd it is already declining in many developed countriesStrike hardFixed ambition is high Nicolas Sarkozy wants to strike hardThe result of the discussion is expected backUnless the Parliament is the double speedBaudouin Prot is much to this distinctionOn the year the firm IDC anticipates a decline of 1Polls are fleeting grudges are tenacious4 billion of dollars of aid promised in 2007When the Chinese central authorities, and notably Zhou Xiaochuan, the Governor of the Central Bank, were questioned, end of March, just before the G20, the dollar hegemonic role in the global economy and referred to a new currency reserve controlled by the international monetary Fund (IMF), many analysts have understood that the country would quickly try to break its dependence on the greenback. They have so far been disappointed. China has been, on the contrary, to speed up its purchases of us debt. On the month of March alone, it would have acquired 23.7 billion of U.S. treasuries. "Well, the Government launched several warnings and other balloons test, but, actually, it is very difficult to revolutionize their monetary policy." "They are stuck," summarizes a European expert.
China, recording since the beginning of the 2000 years of huge trade surpluses, should manage the arrival in the country of the huge flow of dollars earned by its exporters. To prevent an appreciation of its own currency, the yuan, and protect the low price of production "made in China", the Central Bank has massively bought those currencies that are flooding the country. According to recent calculations by Brad Setser, a researcher at the Council of Foreign Relations, it would have thus accumulated in recent years 1,500 billion dollars, amount of foreign currency estimated at 2,300 billion.
To build this money, the Safe, the public body for management of foreign exchange reserves, invested heavily in the United States and particularly in the US debt. Brad Setser believes that the country had thus, in late March, 760 billion dollars of US Treasury bills, 489 billion bond agencies (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae...), 121 billion of bonds of enterprises or even 104 billion in US stocks.
Risky investments
But with the crisis, Beijing is concerned for the safety of its investments. He fears notably that US deficits soaring grows down the value of the dollar, and thus the overall value of investment in China. If it looks good to diversify its investment, the country has far upsetting to find markets also large and liquid capable of absorbing its huge investments in dollars.
Multiple acquisitions of mining or energy assets have been announced, but they remain limited to the rate of accumulation of dollars. Buying of gold have been strengthened but are struggling, too, to follow the pace of increase in the reserves of the country. They are now less than 2 of the total amount of these reserves against 4 in 2002.
To break its dependence on the dollar, Beijing now seems to want to promote the use of its own currency in international trade. Since December, the country has signed six agreements of exchange of foreign currency, involving 650 billion yuan ($95 billion), with the South Korea, Hong Kong, the Malaysia, the Belarus, the Indonesia and the Argentina. But, these "swaps", pointing the experts, will not be able to seduce international trade until the country has not accepted to make the yuan fully convertible, and do not let it float freely. A perspective that always denies Beijing, panicked at the idea of its currency to appreciate and its economic model based on cheap production collapse..
