11 million of which 45 were medium dependentThe Spain went to the same effect but more recentlyIt will be very hard says a top of the listVery bad omen for a few weeks of midterm legislative elections50 at the meeting of June 2010 rose above 50But when they will address the Outlook for 2011 iThe first two parameters are less useful in this wayIn l ' Oréal awareness is even more recentDanone said the increase in organic growth of 6The State has for the moment given step suiteThe major economic event of 2008 was brilliant: it was the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. The great event of 2009 is underground: is globalization breakage. Between the fall of New York City home in mid-September 2008 and the hollow of the scholarship course in March 2009, the global trade in goods have fallen off of... 38. Never in history had occurred both as strong and as sudden fall even during the great depression of the 1930s. The trade ministers, who find themselves next week in Geneva for a large raout of the World Trade Organization, is there can but. Except perhaps to attempt to identify which of seven suspects caused this unprecedented slump.
The first suspect, the most obvious, the most denounced too, must be cleared to at the outset: is protectionism. In the 1930s, major countries had closed their borders, further exacerbating the terrible economic crisis. But at the time was before the crash of 1929. The Smoot-Hawley Act, passed in the United States in June 1930 for the customs duties on more than 20,000 products, was part of a cycle started... in 1922. Nothing of the kind this time. Professor Simon Evenett, track since his Swiss University of St. Gallen protectionist measures, certainly identified hundreds of recent attacks on free trade. But it's beating of knife, given on specific products, often in a bilateral framework. Nothing to do with the beatings of axe by Senators Hawley and Smoot!
Comes just after another suspect: finance. Because world trade work for the export credit. And this credit inevitably suffered the crisis of last fall. But the IMF economists argue, in their report released last month after having carried out a survey of bankers, that it is a minor guilty: "It is the decrease in demand, rather than the difficulties of obtaining commercial credits, which has been one of the determinants of contraction."Andrei Levchenko, Logan Lewis and Linda Tesar, researchers at the University of Michigan, worked differently in the case of the United States by examining the Exchange at a very fine level. They reached the same conclusion: "We find nothing to support the hypothesis that the commercial credit has played a role in the recent collapse of the trade."
Therefore come to the real culprits. The third suspect has its share of responsibility. It is the Lehman shock, which was synchronized for the first time in history the economies of the world. In the previous shocks, some countries dévissaient, but others resisted. Nothing like this time. In an article published on VoxEU, economists Richard Baldwin and Daria Taglioni are that during the America's recession of 2001, on a sample of 52 countries, only 39 of bilateral trade had declined, both side import and export. This time, the proportion is mounted to 83. Occurring everywhere in the world at the same time, the synchronized shock mechanically amplified the fall.
The fourth suspect is him as guilty. It is the composition of world trade. Products which are trading more than are also those whose application has the most fallen, like the automobile or machinery. The three economists from the University of Michigan clearly show. There is a "impact report": it is easier to postpone the purchase of a car or a new machine than wheat or pants.
The fifth suspect is involved certainly. It was the cousin of the previous: the quality effect. During the crisis, consumers have preferred to buy lower-range. According to the calculations of Antoine Berthou and Charlotte Emlinger, researchers at the Cepii, imports from 15 European countries declined in a year of 17 on the lower range and 23 on the top of range, niche where the fall is accentuated end of 2008. The value of trade declined more than their volume.
The sixth suspect was exactly the same impact, but by another channel: this is the price effect. Stopping suddenly to establish stocks of supplies, enterprises have caused a collapse in the prices of raw materials, which are one-quarter of world exports. July 2008 to February 2009, the CRB futures, the broader index fell more than 40. Here again, the value fell more than the volume.
The role of the latest suspect is more difficult to prove. It could be called the proximity effect. In production chains more exploded at the four corners of the world, manufacturers have sought to refocus their production in the country, there where they know the best subcontractors and bankers. Last spring, Porsche for example reduced its orders to Finnish suppliers in now purchases in Germany. But beyond anecdotes, this effect is not clear.
In total, the collapse of world trade seems to be explained by logical causes... and reversible. The rebound should follow. In the second quarter of 2009, world exports have also earned 8. But said nothing for the moment that the crisis has not changed in depth trade flows.
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