However this is only a part of the projectAnd it is already declining in many developed countriesStrike hardFixed ambition is high Nicolas Sarkozy wants to strike hardThe result of the discussion is expected backUnless the Parliament is the double speedBaudouin Prot is much to this distinctionOn the year the firm IDC anticipates a decline of 1Polls are fleeting grudges are tenacious4 billion of dollars of aid promised in 2007Such a level of excellence is not improvisedTwo years after a presidential election which saw him 7 million votes, again François Bayrou in situation of hope to find in the European elections this Sunday, the third place which, hoped, enable it to move one step in 2012. Certainly, in the various pre-election polls, Modem lists remain remote of the PS and too far behind those of the UMP for this foreshadows a major upheaval. And centrist formation was not reconstituted its 2007 electoral potential, when François Bayrou had collected 18.6 in the first round. But for a training which has only three elected to the National Assembly, and the leader himself was defeated in the last municipal in Pau, the peak reached here is low in the polls (14) could look like a political resurrection. The "breakthrough" relative of the Modem has impressed as she is accompanied by an erosion of the Socialist lists scores. Nothing however to conclude or to the emergence of a third political force structured or displacement of its centre of gravity to the left.
First, with 11 to 13 of the vote, the formation of François Bayrou is rising from its performance "real" at the 2008 cantonal, measured in 534 townships where she had presented candidates. Then, in comparable election, would it increase little, or no, from the obtained score in the European of 2004 by the former centrist party, the UDF (12). Very low announced participation makes, finally, very difficult the analysis of the background movements of the electorate. "Reported failure rates are too high so that it can know with certainty whether the Modem nibbles Socialist voters", says Dominique Reynié, Professor at Sciences po Paris, and Director General of the Foundation for innovation policy.
With such silent voice tank, travel registered a camp to another become little representative both and of limited extent. In "Le Figaro", Monday, Jérôme Fourquet, Deputy Director of the opinion of the FIFG Department, recalled that at the planned level of abstention 1 point of intent to vote is no more than 160,000 votes.
Despite the approaches made by François Bayrou Socialist voters, it would be premature to believe that the Modem bites more than its leader two years ago on the electorate of left. Since 2007, "the centrist electorate has evolved in part following the tropism of opposition very marked its President, soccer Brice Teinturier, Deputy Director General of TNS Sofres, but the fluidity with Greens, PS electorates and, for some, UMP prohibits talk of crystallization at high level."
In the form, François Bayrou grows, as ever, since the beginning of the campaign of the European, the posture of first opponent Nicolas Sarkozy. At the risk of locking is in what appears more and more as a personal struggle, he built what Dominique Reynié calls a "style" and is not yet a speech. Witness his latest opus, "Abuse of power", almost entirely turned towards the denunciation of the supposed excesses of the regime. If the "style Bayrou", more flamboyant, more powerful "style Aubry" from mode, can cause part of Socialist to vote for its lists, voters, the background, on the other hand, rest humane values and references to the Christian legacy, as the denunciation of the excesses of the market economy, the conviction of the power of the money or the defence of a Republican model built on the balance of power and the guarantee of secularism. On the latter point, moreover, François Bayrou can be taken in tort of contradiction for failed to be so, in early 2004, the Act prohibiting the wearing of headscarves in school.
Borrowing to the left for the virulence of his opposition to the majority and instead to the right for what is still only a draft project, the identity of the Modem remains complex, if not difficult to understand. François Bayrou "will not be long on this ridge line", prognostic Dominique Reynié, while Brice Teinturier sees in "the perceived weakness of the draft economic and social, as in the system of alliances in General", a limit to the centrist progress. Indeed, European election may only promote the progression of the Modem, because although less programmatic than a presidential election, it allows hinge party together without cliver. But it is very likely that, once the vote is passed, the Center bubble deflates. If this is already done.
