The Spain went to the same effect but more recentlyIt will be very hard says a top of the listVery bad omen for a few weeks of midterm legislative elections50 at the meeting of June 2010 rose above 50But when they will address the Outlook for 2011 iThe first two parameters are less useful in this wayIn l ' Oréal awareness is even more recentDanone said the increase in organic growth of 6The State has for the moment given step suiteThe objective is always the new authority to be operational in midFebruaryThe Minister of labour Xavier Darcos recently reaffirmed: the establishment of a fifth risk in support of the dependency will be "in the heart of Government policy for 2010". If Government arbitrations are expected, one thing appears to be acquired: the future regime made national solidarity (State), family and heritage solidarity (transfers of life, recovery on legacy) and personal solidarity (insurance). How and in what proportion, it is all the difficulty, technical but primarily political. The flexibility of the public authorities to the less reduced, there is a large bet that the role of insurers will be growing.
To move a debate difficult and repeatedly postponed - dependence is a "taboo", complex risk model, which occurrence is distant - French, not reinsurers Scor, decided to get out of their reserve. They feel legitimate to do so, since they remind, "reinsurance is linchpin of dependency insurance."They thus built a "universal coverage for the France project", with "Les echos" purchased a copy via the Apref association which federates.
Coverage built on a few simple principles, but nonetheless quite revolutionary. Their first assumption is radical: both side public private, must focus on which is more expensive and is more random, namely heavy dependence. "Slight dependence poses no real financial problems to households, and it is more difficult to apprehend with objectivity, and therefore more likely to give rise to drift, or even to fraud", argues the Apref.
The cost of the APA explodes
A proposal to the antipodes of the existing distributive system, based on allocation personalized autonomy (APA). End of 2008, the APA was paid to 1.11 million, of which 45 were medium dependent. However, the cost of this benefit in kind explodes (EUR 5.1 billion in 2009), and it is totally insufficient for the case of heavier dependence (1.225 euros paid by month, for a close cost of 2,500 euros). "It compensates that people can support," summarizes the Apref.
The second assumption is that the national solidarity is designed to operate with less creditworthy people. Reinsurers are not provided for a compulsory insurance cover, which would solve true problems of anti-selection, but prove economically less optimal. They argue instead for a subtle game of carrot and stick, with reliance on tax exempt and tax insurance contributions, but a mechanism for recovery of legacy for those who have made the choice not to ensure.
The Apref made accounts: target that the more dependent persons would ultimately save EUR 1.5 billion, while the substitution of the insurance to the APA, for solvent people, would save $ 2.25 billion. At the end of a transition period of a fortnight of the year, the ABS would therefore pass 5 to 1.25 billion euros (1). In return, the State would have to assume approximately 3.5 billion euros per year of tax credit, a budget lower than what would be the social and tax deductibility which enjoy a fifth branch of social security contributions.
Remains whether these proposals, the effect would be visible for long, will have the ear of the public authorities and insurers. "The solution can not be instant and immediate," recognizes the Apref. One thing is certain: with the arrival to the retirement of the first generations of baby boomers, there is urgency. "Crisis or no crisis, more expected, less it will be productive", said the association.
